Masters by the numbers: history suggests Scottie Scheffler has no shot

The Masters is only a couple days away and golf fans are chomping at the bit. With the emergence of sports betting in America, there is even a new sector of the population looking forward to the magic that is Augusta National.

The Masters Tournament is known as one of the most unpredictable golf tournaments of the year. Yet, there are so many repeat winners and stars of the game seemingly always in contention.

What does that all mean? How can someone accurately predict what will happen?

Whether you are wagering on the event, or in your uncle’s Masters pool, there is some info you should know before making your selections.

The Masters by the Numbers

Scottie Scheffler up against it

Scottie Scheffler enters this year’s Masters Tournament as a heavy favorite. He is currently a 4-to-1 favorite to take home his second Green Jacket. The next closest is Rory McIlroy at 11-to-1, per DraftKings.

It’s easy to understand why he is such an overwhelming favorite. Scheffler is not only the World No. 1 ranked player, but is on fire right now.

Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images

In his last three starts, Scheffler won the Arnold Palmer Invitational going away, held on to win the Players Championship and was a missed putt away from forcing a playoff at Houston Open.

His tee-to-green stats are historically significant. In fact, we have not seen numbers like the ones he is putting up since prime Tiger Woods. But let’s face it, he is not Tiger, nor may anyone ever be again.

Therein lies the problem.

Since 2000, there have only been three odds-on favorites to win the Masters, per Sportshandle.com. All three were Woods, in 2001, 2002 and 2005.

In fact, as many favorites finished 31st or worse as did in spots 6-10.

Eight of the 23 iterations this century have seen a top-five finish without winning. So Scheffler might very well be in contention. But history suggests he will not hoisting a trophy come Sunday night.

Americans in Great Spot to win Green Jacket

From 1980 through the 2020 Masters, an international player won 12 of the 21 tournaments. It is by far the largest stretch of time that American golfers did not dominate Augusta National.

But since the turn of the century, the tide has turned as well.

Photo by David Cannon/Allsport/Getty Images

Players hailing from the red, white and blue have spent Sunday evening in Butler Cabin 14 of 23 times, or 61 percent of the time.

Even if you take Scheffler off the table, there are still a ton of Americans that are capable of winning.

Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay, Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau are all among the favorites.

Interestingly, the average odds of the winner of the Masters in the 21st century is 33-to-1. Currently, Cantlay is 30-to-1, and both Johnson and DeChambeau are 35-to-1, each Americans.

Fading First-Timers at Augusta National

A lot of people have been riding the Ludvig Aberg hype train into Georgia. He deserves the praise and following, just not your Masters pick.

Nor do the likes of Wyndham Clark, Peter Malnati, Nick Dunlap, Nicolai Hojgaard, and the 14 others making their debut.

Since the tournaments inception in 1934, only three times has someone won it during their first appearance.

1934 of course is one of them, when Horton Smith was the inaugural event. A year later, Gene Sarazen rode “the shot heard ‘round the world” and won becoming the second.

The only other time was In 1979 when Fuzzy Zoeller did the unthinkable.

That’s it. That’s the list.

Clark is playing high-level golf coming into this tournament. Aberg has been outstanding. Dunlap won The American Express this year. Malnati captured Valspar a couple weeks ago in Florida.

A number of first-timers are playing well coming in.

But history is history.

Kendall Capps is the Senior Editor of SB Nation’s Playing Through. For more golf coverage, follow us @_PlayingThrough on all major social media platforms.