Are Republicans heading toward another red wave that wasn’t? That’s the story if a new round of battleground polls from Morning Consult is to be believed.
Tuesday afternoon brought about the pollster’s latest release, and it was almost universally excellent news for Kamala Harris. For the first time in a very long time, a survey found Trump losing most of the swing states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.
#New General Election Poll
Arizona – 🔵 Harris +2
Georgia – 🟡 Tie
Michigan – 🔵 Harris +11
Nevada – 🔵 Harris +1
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris +2
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +4
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump +2Morning Consult #C – 437 RV (Each) – 7/28 pic.twitter.com/cV719ua5w3
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 30, 2024
Trump hasn’t trailed in a poll of Nevada since the general election started. Arizona has also been solidly in his corner. Georgia being tied is yet another red flag, and if North Carolina is that close on election night, then Harris will be president.
With all that said, there’s reason for pause here. I’m not going to blow smoke up anyone’s backside or outright dismiss polls that don’t fit my desired outcome, but that doesn’t mean I can’t take an honest and analytical look at what’s being presented here.
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To start, it is exceptionally hard to believe that Trump is up four points in Pennsylvania but down 11 points in Michigan. That’s a spread that simply makes no sense whatsoever. Further, that margin for Harris in Michigan would be larger than Gretchen Whitmer’s victory in 2022. Does that seem likely? It just doesn’t seem to add up. Those two states have been extremely close in the last two presidential elections. For them to be 15 points apart is just not probable.
Then there’s the fact that Morning Consult has been an outlier throughout this presidential cycle. For example, they had Biden winning a significant margin in both Pennsylvania and Michigan post-debate when every other pollster showed him crashing and burning. They also had the president only losing by one point in Georgia (Harris is tied according to the latest survey).
Alright, we’ve doomed. Now, I’ll provide just a bit of cope on those Morning Consult polls.
They have been outliers most of the cycle. Even *post-debate* they had Biden up by a good margin in MI and WI. They also only had Biden down one in GA (Harris is tied in the latest). pic.twitter.com/0nhhThNUxN
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) July 30, 2024
Lastly, the sample sizes here should be noted. The smaller the sample size is, the more likely a poll is to be less than representative and produce illogical results. Morning Consult’s latest slate polled only 437 people in each state. That’s a tiny sample size and could explain why the Pennslyvania and Michigan results simply make no sense.
With all that said, I’m hesitant to outright dismiss these polls because I’ve just been burned too many times in the past. Throw these in the averages and move forward, but also acknowledge there’s ample evidence that Harris has put the race in doubt. The Trump campaign, which spent Tuesday denouncing Project 2025 again (for some reason), is in a defensive posture right now. They need to quickly get back on the offensive. Too much is at stake to let this slip away.
