Welcome to my review of the 124th week of Tsar Vladomir’s conquest of Ukraine.
The big news of the week was the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington, DC. The StripeyPants™ was exercised by an obviously demented Joe Biden leading the alliance and equally concerned about Donald Trump’s return. In the midst of this, the Russians decided to take out an iconic children’s hospital in the middle of Kiev and run a blindingly stupid cover story to explain it.
BACKGROUND: Russian Missile Attack Levels Children’s Hospital in Kiev As NATO Summit Kicks Off – RedState
Several positive things came out of the NATO Summit. The newly minted British Prime Minister Keir Starmer removed restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles. As I pointed out in the link above, one of the direct causes of the attack on the hospital in Kiev was Biden’s resistance to allowing Ukraine to strike at Russian airbases.
The missiles are “obviously to be used in accordance with international humanitarian law” and “for defensive purposes,” but “it is for Ukraine to decide how to deploy (them) for those defensive purposes,” the prime minister said during the NATO summit in Washington.
The feckless US national security establishment is holding to its position that Russia is a Vietnam-style sanctuary from which the Russian military can stage attacks and be safe from defensive fires.
BACKGROUND: Biden White House Establishes Sanctuaries for Russian Forces Attacking Ukraine; Does This Sound Familiar?
The strike on the children’s hospital in Kiev also highlighted the need for more air defense systems to protect Ukrainian population centers. The allies have committed to supplying nine additional air defense systems in the near future.
The subtext of all of this is Joe Biden’s performance. He’s obviously well past his “sell by” date, and his ability to function as a sentient being is debatable. The press conference at the end of the NATO Summit will be lit. This is some of the good stuff up so far.
BACKGROUND:
Joe Biden’s Last Stand? LIVE Coverage of NATO Presser
MUST SEE: Right Before His ‘Big Boy’ Presser, Biden Makes Incredible ‘Mistake’ During NATO Meeting
Biden NATO Summit Confusion Includes Bizarre Gestures—and Even a Struggle With a Chair
Biden Botches Quote at NATO Summit, What He Says Instead Is a Revelatory Freudian Slip
Biden Slurs and Stumbles Through NATO Anniversary Remarks, Clinging to the Teleprompter for Dear Life
Russia Has Made Three Peace Proposals Since April and They Have Two Things in Common
Along with the NATO Summit, Ukraine and Poland agreeing on a security pact shared top billing for importance.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a bilateral security agreement with Poland in Warsaw on Monday — aimed at strengthening ties with one of the country’s closest wartime allies.
Poland has already provided 44 military aid packages to Ukraine worth €4 billion and has pledged to provide several more this year and into the next decade.
…
Ukraine has so far signed such 20 bilateral security deals with its allies; Poland brings the total to 21. They include concrete provisions for long-term military and financial aid and training for Ukrainian troops, as well as weapons deliveries, but they do not oblige the signatories to go to war on Ukraine’s behalf.
This was followed by an announcement that Poland would form and train a new volunteer brigade on Polish soil for service in Ukraine.
There was even a brief moment when rumors circulated that Poland would extend a combat air patrol over Western Ukraine. But the “fear of escalation cabal decided that more dead Ukrainian civilians was a fair tradeoff when balanced against an academic theory.
Poland will not shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine if they are flying in its direction until given permission by all NATO member states, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh said on Polish Radio, explaining that Warsaw’s position is derived from White House policy, which fears “escalation of the conflict.”
According to him, Kyiv has long hoped for Poland’s participation in the defense of its airspace, but Warsaw won’t make the relevant decisions alone.
“If the Alliance does not make such a decision, then Poland should in no way make such decisions alone,” the minister said.
Kosiniak-Kamysh added that there is no such agreement in NATO, saying that it only applies to missiles fired over the territory of Ukraine.
“Of course, there are other procedures for missile [attacks] on [targets within] the territory of the Republic of Poland. Then it is our decision,” he said.
As Russia’s military and economic situation deteriorates, we’ll hear more from JD Vance, John Mearsheimer, Jackson Hinkle, and other notables calling on Ukraine to give up a third of its country and its entire coastline for a peace deal that Putin will never keep. For your convenience, I’ve tried to pull together Putin’s offers; see Russia Has Made Three Peace Proposals Since April, and They Have Two Things in Common.
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 123. F-16s Wait in the Wings, More Weapons Arrive, and the Momentum Shifts – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire
Putin’s War, Week 121. Putin Threatens, Zelensky Negotiates, and the White House Sends Lots of Missiles
Putin’s War, Week 120. Zelensky Gets Security Agreement With the US and the Repo Man Comes for Russia
Putin’s War, Week 119.
Putin’s War, Week 118. Ukraine Gets a Green Light From Biden and France Nearly Has ‘Boots on the Ground’
Putin’s War, Week 117. Jake Sullivan Under Fire, ATACMS Everywhere, and the Stalemate Continues
Putin’s War, Week 116. Russian Offensive Stalls, Ukraine Discovers Wild Weasel, and Blinken Plays Guitar
Putin’s War, Week 115. ATACMS Makes a Splash and Russia Opens a New Front
Putin’s War, Week 114. Russia Races Against Time As Ukraine Tries to Hold On
Putin’s War, Week 113. US Aid Arrives Just in Time and a Russian Attack Nearly Turns Into a Breakthrough
For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Politico-Strategic Level
Sauce for the Goose Is Sauce for the Gander
A month ago, Vladimir Putin tried to solidify his claim to being the leader of a first-rank power by visiting North Korea. He came away with a mutual defense treaty and, it seems, a pissed-off China.
BACKGROUND:
Game Changer: Russia Signs Mutual Defense Treaty With North Korea – RedState
North Korea Promises to Send Troops and Workers to Support Russia in Ukraine – RedState
Putin’s Visit to North Korea and Vietnam May Have Done Him More Harm Than Good – RedState
Birds of a Feather: Putin Visits North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in a James Bond Movie Supervillain Summit – RedState
China is requiring North Korea to repatriate all North Korean laborers working in China; this cuts one of North Korea’s main sources of income. As if to underscore its displeasure with the outbreak of Moscow-Pyongyang kissy-face, China has deployed troops to Belarus to participate in “counter terrorism” exercises.
Some are trying to portray this as a sign of greater China-Russia cooperation, but it isn’t. Russia considers Belarus to be part of the Russian-dominated “Union State.” There are no Russian troops involved in this exercise. This is China establishing a relationship with Belarus at Russia’s expense. There is more of this to come in the Russian Far East, where China is publishing maps assigning Chinese placenames to Russian cities, and in Russia’s Central Asian republics.
Russia Tries to Out-Grift California
Rich Man’s War, Poor Man’s Fight
I’ve seen a lot of reports on the rampant corruption in Russia’s conscription system, but this is the first indication that someone is taking it seriously. I think the best read on this is that Moscow is not putting 30,000 men into uniform each month, and the casualty toll is being felt in high places.
China Backs Off Russian Trade
Despite being the only reason Russia is still in this war, China’s first interest is China. Chinese banks have cut off contact with Russian banks targeted for sanctions. China is also putting the brakes on the export of military and dual-use equipment to Russia.
More on Wounded Soldiers Returned to Combat
In my last update, I posted about complaints in Russian units of wounded men being sent back into combat before they have healed. Here is more detail on that.
More Trouble for CSTO
Last week, Armenia, a member of the Russian-sponsored rival to NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, announced it was attending a major NATO meeting. This week, it announced that it was participating in joint training with the US Army. I guess standing aside while Azerbaijan thumps an ally has a cost.
Related: Russia doesn’t seem to care. What makes these guys different from Western podcasts is they only discuss approved themes and positions.
Bucha Massacre Commander Arrested
Color me skeptical that this is merely a fraud arrest.
Potemkin Villages Are Still a Thing
Russia has been making a big deal of its push to rehabilitate the utterly devastated city of Mariupol. They haven’t had a lot of luck in real life, but they are killing it in fantasy land.
Stay Away From the Windows
“The situation shows us that we can no longer grow extensively, growth can only be thanks to labor productivity, and labor productivity is technology.” –Elvira Nabiullina, Governor, Central Bank of Russia
Wait, I Didn’t Know Ukraine Could Do This
Now that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been routed from Crimea, Ukraine is extending its reach.
Ukraine seized a foreign cargo ship in the Black Sea off its Odesa region and detained the captain on suspicion of helping Moscow export Ukrainian grain from Russian-occupied Crimea, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on Thursday.
Kyiv has accused Russia of trading stolen Ukrainian grain since the 2022 war began. Ship seizures, however, have been rare and shipping sources said they were concerned about possible retaliation at a critical time in the year as Ukraine grain exports reach a peak.
The vessel repeatedly docked at the Crimean sea port of Sevastopol to pick up agricultural products in 2023-24, the SBU said, describing the loads as “looted”.
Peak Russia
Most Stereotypes Have a Basis in Fact
Last week, I posted about the viral video of a Russian soldier wounded in a drone attack, having his brains blown out by a comrade rather than any attempt to evacuate him. Russian television has picked up the video and claims it is a Ukrainian soldier.
Operational Level
Just a note before going ahead. Last week, I was lectured in the comments by someone on every minor engagement on this 600-mile front line with the implication that I wasn’t being honest in my evaluation because there were lots of places where the Russians had gained three or four yards, and they weren’t mentioned. I try to report on the operational level of this war with a slight look at strategic events. Often ground gained (think Battle of the Bulge or the Russian advance on Kiev) means damned little. Even a breakthrough that is not followed up by an armored force supported by a logistics train is interesting but hardly decisive. If you don’t like my analysis, that’s your prerogative. Just don’t think you’ve found information I’ve missed.
The operational picture remains largely unchanged over the last week. Russian offensive efforts are focused in Donbas. The only area with the potential for a Russian operational breakthrough is the Avdiivka area. The front lines haven’t completely stabilized from a tactical blunder as a frontline Ukrainian brigade was being relieved by a fresh and inexperienced unit. The incursion in northern Kharkiv continues to be blocked. The Ukrainian offensive action there last week has ended. My supposition is that with the threat poised at Sumy Oblast frozen, reserves rushed to the area have been sent south, and the “correlation of forces” is not favorable for a continued counterattack.
My view remains that the Russian offensive has culminated, and the initiative is sliding toward the Ukrainian Army.
One of the main problems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been a lack of manpower. It wasn’t so much a function of the lack of men, as the systems in place didn’t use them all that well. The government was reluctant to go to full wartime mobilization, and there was inefficiency and corruption in the mobilization apparatus. Those problems haven’t all been solved, but a lot of progress has been made.
As I posted last week, fourteen new Ukrainian brigades have been formed and are in various stages of training since the new mobilization law went into effect.
BACKGROUND: Putin’s War, Week 123. F-16s Wait in the Wings, More Weapons Arrive, and the Momentum Shifts – RedState
An issue that will come into play later this year, a shortage of tanks for the Russian Army, is explored in detail in a very good video.
The Russian Army won’t run out of tanks, but the tanks coming out of storage are progressively older and less capable. The Russian industrial base can’t keep up with combat and non-combat losses, and the Russian logistics system isn’t able to evacuate damaged or broken-down tanks from the front lines for a rebuild. Read this thread for a lot more information.
We’re reading less about “shell hunger” these days and part of the reason may be that common sense has taken a tenuous hold in the Pentagon. The US has about 3 million rounds of 155mm DPICM ammunition pending demilitarization because its bomblet dud rate exceeds the DOD standard of 2.35%. Some of that ammunition has been seen in Ukraine.
Monday marked the largest Russian missile strike in a month. By the way, this strike confirms a pattern in Russian strikes that goes back six months, broken only by the massive missile blitz in March. The highest profile target was the children’s hospital in Kiev, but other cities and civilian targets were hit.
Rheinmetall and BAE have set up production facilities inside Ukraine. Northrop Grumman is joining the club. Northrop Grumman will set up a factory to manufacture medium-caliber ammunition.
“We will be producing [weapons] in Ukraine by Ukrainians with the cooperation of a U.S. company,” Stephen O’Bryan, corporate vice president and global business development officer at Northrop Grumman, said Thursday at the NATO Public Forum.
The company says it will provide equipment, training and tooling to the manufacturer Ukroboronservice. Ukrainian workers will assemble and test medium-caliber ammunition, according to Northrop Grumman spokesperson Brian Humphries.
This is another critical step in building resilience into Ukraine’s defense capacity.
New Weapons
Back to the Future
Moscow’s skyline is now festooned with barrage balloons as a defense against drone attacks.
Combat Operations
Russian War Crimes Continue
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
…the Least Preferred Technique
A Russian soldier tosses an anti-tank mine into a window. The mine has been modified with some sort of time fuze rather than the usual pressure-activated fuze. We don’t know what was in the room/
No Words
Last week, I posted an image of a dirt bike belonging to one of the Russian motorcycle assault groups fitted out with an anti-drone cage. This is a Chinese DesertCross ATV, aka HummXi, with a similar contraption.
MmmmKay
Too Little, Too Late
Old But Not Obsolete
Back in Week 33, I posted about Spain pulling 1960s vintage HAWK missiles out of storage and sending them to Ukraine ( Putin’s War, Week 33. Mobilization Muddle, a New Era in Air-to-Air Combat Begins, and Another Lull Before a Storm). The Defense Department liked the idea so well that they charged $138 million to send HAWK maintenance equipment and upgrades that were headed for the dumpster to Ukraine. That system has proven it can overmatch any Russian missile except the very top-of-the-line models.
Truer Words…
No, You Morons, I Meant…
Most Russian soldiers must have family and friends buy body armor for them because it is not a standard issue item. Sometimes, do-gooders get involved in the process.
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Hlybroke-Vovchansk
Positional combat continues, but the movement exhibited by the Ukrainian Army last week has stopped.
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna
Last week, the Ukrainian Army made some small gains in this area. This week, they gave it back. There is no indication that the Russian interest here is tied to any larger offensive operation. It seems to be opportunistic and focused on positional gains.
Donbas
The main focus of Russian offensive efforts continues to be in this area. As I’ve said for some time, I believe that the objective of these attacks is to establish possession of Luhansk and Donetsk to the extent of their pre-2014 administrative boundaries in preparation for a credible offer of negotiations. Gains were made in many places, but none of the gains threaten the integrity of the front line. The offensive against Chasiv Yar seems to have ground to a halt, but Russian activity in the area of the former Avdiivka Salient remains troublesome.
Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka
Avdiivka
The main area of Russian activity is in the same area where a botched relief-in-place operation turned into a Ukrainian retreat early in the year.
BACKGROUND: Putin’s War, Week 113. US Aid Arrives Just in Time and a Russian Attack Nearly Turns Into a Breakthrough – RedState
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka
Minor Russian gains were reported in this area, but the frontline remained stable.
HIMARS Hits Melitopol Airfield
Kherson
Krynky
The front in this area is stable.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Partisan Activity
Alushta is on the southern coast of Crimea and this attack will directly affect rail traffic carrying cargo brought to Crimea by ship.
Bridge Closed
The Chondar Bridge, a vital link in the Russian resupply route, is closed for undisclosed reasons. The map shows the length of the detour required. A Storm Shadow attack hit the bridge in March.
Russia
Ammunition Depot, Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast
The depot is about 150 miles from the Ukrainian border and was attacked by drones.
Oil Depot, Krasnodar Krai
Electrical Infrastructure, Krasnodar Krai
Munitions Factory, Tambov, Tambov Oblast
A Ukrainian drone struck one of Russia’s largest munitions factories. Tambov is nearly 300 miles behind the lines. It is the second time this factory has been attacked. There is no information on the extent of the damage.
RELATED: Putin’s War, Week 90. Grain Corridor Reopens and Russia Hints at Another Major Retreat – RedState
An oil depot in the same city was hit in late June.
Oil Refinery, Rostov
What’s Next
Between the G7 Summit, the NATO Summit, and some 21 bilateral security arrangements negotiated by Ukraine, the sustainment of the Ukrainian military has become much more regular than it was a year ago. In this context, I think Russia’s opportunity for a military victory is rapidly vanishing, if not already gone. Supposedly. Putin has adopted a strategy of winning by small gains and attrition of the Ukrainian military, and that would fit with a realization that Russia can’t put together a war of maneuver at the tactical, to say nothing of the operational level.
If I’m correct and the drop in operational tempo of the Ukrainian forces facing the Russian incursion in the Hlybroke-Vovchansk area is due to units being moved elsewhere, then the question is where those units are going. My guess is to keep our eyes on those areas which are very quiet. I can’t see the advantage of trying to claw back Russian gains in Donbas when the topography says the attacker is going to get mauled more often than not. Look for someplace to the west of last year’s Ukrainian Summer Offensive that can put the two bridges and one railroad line connecting Crimea to Rostove in jeopardy.
