This season has been the worst for Tua Tagovailoa’s health, but also the best for proving his value to the Miami Dolphins. Despite losing to Josh Allen for the second time this season, Tua’s 25-of-28 passing day with two touchdowns in Week 9 was one of the best performances by any QB this year and gives the Dolphins hope that missing the playoffs now won’t have to mean rebuilding Miami’s roster (again) in 2025.
If they can just keep Tua upright and assure he’s doing the right thing by continuing to play.
Redemption Day
In his last game before going on IR with another head injury, Tua threw three interceptions in a 31-10 loss to the Bills, a day in which Allen had +0.50 EPA per dropback, the 16th-best mark of any QB this season.
In Tua’s second game back from IR, once again facing Buffalo, he went 25-of-28 for 231 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, and +0.59 EPA per dropback, which is the 10th-best mark this season.
Per @TruMediaSports, Tua Tagovailoa’s EPA per dropback was 0.62 vs. the Bills today. That is the 9th highest single game EPA/dropback for any quarterback in 2024.
Tua is the only one of the top 9 to lose the game.
— Matt Infante (@MattInfante) November 3, 2024
QBs with an EPA/dropback of +0.46 or greater are 17-2 this season, with those losses being Tua in Week 9 and Joe Burrow in a 41-38 loss to the Ravens in Week 5. (Burrow has 2 of the 20 best EPA/dropback games this year and he’s 0-2 in them.)
A week earlier in his return from injury, Tua had a really good +0.22 EPA/dropback in a 28-27 loss to the Cardinals. But even though the Dolphins are 0-2 since Tua returned, they’re competing again as if Miami is still the good team they were supposed to be at the start of the season:
- The Dolphins scored a total of 40 points in the 4 games Tua missed (10 PPG)
- The Dolphins have scored 54 points in 2 games since he came back (27 PPG)
Tua’s super power
According to NFL Pro stats, Tua’s the fastest draw in the league: His 2.39 seconds to throw is the fastest in the league by a HUGE margin, and his 57.8% quick throw rate (getting rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds) is also the highest mark.
Because the Dolphins do not have a solid backup plan, there’s really no other QB on the roster to compare him to fairly. However, in his last game, Tyler Huntley was throwing the ball an average of 3.3 seconds after the snap, one of the slowest marks in the league.
NFL offenses are timed to the quarterback’s feet, so Mike McDaniel’s week-to-week plan has to change so dramatically without Tua that it probably feels a little pointless to even try. What can the Dolphins do to insure against losing Tua in the future?
Well, the unfortunate answer for McDaniel is that there may be nothing you can do when a QB is as unique as Tua. When he gets the ball out that quickly and is so accurate, that’s why the Dolphins signed Tua to a four-year, $212 million contract extension prior to the season.
And though Miami could entertain drafting a quarterback as insurance, that’s taking away the opportunity to draft a player who could help Tua, like another receiver (Tyreek Hill turns 31 next year) or a big body up front who can keep Tua off the ground.
At this point is is obvious to everyone that this version of the Dolphins can’t succeed without Tua. The only question remaining is: How much longer can the Dolphins afford to lose games and miss the playoffs with the same plan?
