Ukraine's Surprise Invasion of Russia Leaves Putin With the Stunned-Mullet Look

By / / Gov & Politics / 9 minutes of reading



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The Ukrainian Army launched an attack into Russia’s Kursk Oblast during the early hours of Tuesday. The attacking force seems to consist of about two brigades of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, totaling about 1500 to 2000 troops. The attack swiftly overran Russian positions, seized over 200 square miles of Russian territory, seized the gas pumping station that controls all Russian gas flows to Europe, and appears to have controlled the main Russian railway supply route for Russian forces in Ukraine.

U.S., Ukrainian and Russian officials all acknowledged the ongoing attack, which stunned Moscow and appeared to involve the use of armored fighting vehicles donated to Kyiv by the United States and its European partners — a development that drew no immediate objection from the Biden administration despite its past restrictions on such use of American weaponry.

The surprise assault on Kursk, about 330 miles south of Moscow, seemed designed to bring the war home to Russia, where many do not feel any direct impact of a conflict that has destroyed many Ukrainian cities and towns and displaced millions. It also may be intended to divert Russian troops from other locations along the front, where Ukraine’s military has steadily lost ground in recent months. Analysts suggested Kyiv could be trying to gain leverage for any future negotiations with the Kremlin.

While previous offensives into Russia were led by volunteer militant groups opposed to President Vladimir Putin but not formally affiliated with Ukraine’s Armed Forces, this attack appears to involve several thousand troops, including some from elite assault brigades equipped with U.S. and German vehicles and tanks. They crossed the border Tuesday from Sumy in northeastern Ukraine, according to Russian officials and pro-war military bloggers.

Biden’s national security apparatus was caught flat-footed; perhaps that was why the Ukrainians achieved tactical and operational surprise. Putin was not happy.

Kirby states the US officials will be “reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little better understanding” of the situation in Kursk Oblast, Russia.

He added that the US has not changed its policy of authorising Ukraine to use American-supplied weapons “to target imminent threats just across the border”.

On Tuesday, 6 August, the Russians reported about Ukraine’s attempts to infiltrate into the territory of Kursk Oblast.

Russian propagandists and milbloggers are claiming that Ukrainian forces are in a border area. Russian ruler Vladimir Putin called the situation a “provocation”.

Naturally, the situation is more than a little unclear. Neither the Russians nor Ukrainians have offered much,

Where Did The Ukrainians Get the Troops?

The bulk of the troops seem to have come from the Belarus-Ukraine border. Lukashenko withdrew his troops from the Ukrainian border on July 13. We’re seeing Stryker Armored Fighting Vehicles and a mix of tanks on the Ukrainian side, indicating the presence of one of the mechanized brigades formed during the Spring of 2023. A safe guess is that Ukraine has allocated a reinforced brigade to the attack.

How Did It Happen?

You don’t give the Tsar unpleasant information. The invasion of Ukraine unfolded the way it did because the FSB directorate responsible for intelligence in Ukraine gave optimistic reports about the desire of Ukraine for an Anschluss and said the Ukrainian Army would not fight. According to Bloomberg, something similar happened this time.

Gerasimov and top officials “seemingly dismissed intelligence warnings that Ukrainian soldiers were gathering near the border with Russia’s western Kursk region as much as two weeks before they began the assault,” Bloomberg said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was also not briefed on the troop buildup, the unnamed source reportedly told Bloomberg.

True or not true? It’s hard to tell. There were no missile strikes or air strikes in the Ukrainian assembly areas, something you’d think the Russians would’ve attempted had they known an attack was being staged. On the other hand, the Ukrainians have enough air defense assets that they could’ve made those areas a tough target. My guess would be that if Ukrainian troops were spotted, they were assumed to be reinforcements for Ukrainian units fighting on the Russian border in Kharkiv Oblast. As I’ve noted in my updates, the Ukrainians made a lot of fuss about putting troops in this area after Kadyrov’s Chechens briefly invaded Sumy Oblast; see Putin’s War, Week 120. Zelensky Gets Security Agreement With the US and the Repo Man Comes for Russia – RedState. With a lot of other plausible excuses, you can bet no one wanted to be the guy to tell Putin, “Boss, I think we’re about to be invaded.”

Telegram channels insist that the massing of Ukrainian troops was known and reported.

Line of Advance

Inside the Kremlin

These are some great shots of a grim Putin sitting at his von Stauffenberg table.

Of course, there are always the nukes.

Objectives

This offensive has limited objectives. It is an embarrassment to the Russian government; this is the first time Russia has been invaded since Operation Barbarossa. Given Russia’s recent history of invading its neighbors, it was time for Karma to make a house call. While the offensive has operational objectives like the primary rail line supplying Russian troops in Kharkiv and northern Luhansk, it will also force Russia to move troops from other sectors to try to stop the advance.

This thread gives a good rundown of the tactical options available.

The operation also seemed to be designed to bring Russia to the bargaining table with a reasonable set of expectations.

The Kursk offensive has put new pressure on Putin as Russian civilians have had to be evacuated under the same type of bombardment Ukrainians have endured for more than two years.

Ukrainian officials have asked Washington to let them to use long-range U.S. ATACMS missiles to hit airfields that Russia is using to retaliate against the incursion — a decision that, if approved, could allow Kyiv to hold a portion of Kursk for some time.

“This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia — this is what it’s all about,” the Zelensky adviser said.

Combat Operations

Sudzah LNG Facility

Strykers in Russia

Destroyed Russian Reinforcement Convoy

Civilians Abandoned

Collateral Damage

What’s Next

Ukraine probably has a week where it can run wild before Russia can mass sufficient forces, in quantity and quality, to stop them. Then Ukraine will have to make a decision to either dig in and hold the gains and use that as a bargaining chip to get a Russian withdrawal or pull back.

Russia’s Army is totally committed in Ukraine, and any major shift of forces will create a weakness somewhere. The current situation maps, if accurate, indicate that the Russian forces that attacked Kharkiv in March can no longer be supplied because the railway lines in Kursk Oblast are cut.

Ukraine’s challenge is to convert a tactical and operational victory into something that has strategic impact. 

Russia has been knocked back on its heels, and Putin has been made to look rather ridiculous. He’s not going to take that lying down because if the Tsar is not omnipotent, well, he’s not the Tsar. It is hard to see how Gerasimov and most of the Russian General Staff survive this fiasco.

The episode has also demonstrated a degree of operational brilliance that no one expected. So far, the Ukrainians have seemed as mired in Soviet-era tactics as the Russians. Last summer’s offensive failed because high-value equipment was spread among the good old boy network instead of consolidated. The tactical flexibility we’ve seen over the last three days has starkly contrasted with what we’ve grown accustomed to. If this doesn’t result in a fiasco, and war is nothing if not unpredictable, the Ukrainians have shown their tutors in NATO that they’ve learned their lessons well.





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About The Author

Avatar of Jamie Brady
Jamie Brady is a news writer for Default News Insider, where she covers politics, health, business, and finance. She's been with the site since it launched in 2016 and has been writing about these topics ever since. She's proud to be an American citizen, but she also feels lucky to have grown up in a multicultural family—her mother is from Jamaica and her father is from Ireland. It's this unique background that informs her perspective on the world around us today.

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