Way-too-early 2024 WNBA Playoffs preview, with matchups, predictions and more

The WNBA playoffs are set to begin in just over a month, on September 22nd, and while there’s plenty of regular season basketball left to be played, if the postseason started today, we’d be in store for some pretty exciting first-round matchups.

Here are the midseason WNBA standings:

1. New York Liberty (21-4)
2. Connecticut Sun (18-6)
3. Minnesota Lynx (17-8)
4. Seattle Storm (17-8)
5. Las Vegas Aces (16-8)
6. Phoenix Mercury (13-12)
7. Indiana Fever (11-15)
8. Chicago Sky (10-14)
9. Atlanta Dream (7-17)
10. Los Angeles Sparks (6-18)
11. Washington Mystics (6-19)
12. Dallas Wings (6-19)

The top 8 teams in the league will secure a playoff berth, meaning that at the moment, the Dream, Sparks, Mystics, and Wings are all out of the playoff picture. That could change if ny of those teams get hot, but the Fever and Sky have a bit of a cushion for the #7 and #8 seeds.

The first round is a best-of-three series in which the team with the better record will host the first two games, and subsequently hit the road for a third game, in the event that the first two games were split.

If the playoffs started today, here’s who we’d see face off in the first round:

#1 Liberty vs #8 Sky

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Players to watch: Breanna Stewart (Liberty), Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty), Jonquel Jones (Liberty), Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (Liberty), Angel Reese (Sky), Chennedy Carter (Sky), Kamilla Cardoso (Sky)
Series Prediction: The Liberty win the series in two games, but both games go down to the wire.

The New York Liberty has been the most consistent team in the league all season, anchored by two-time MVP Breanna Stewart, one-time MVP Jonquel Jones, and rising star Sabrina Ionescu. They’re currently the favorite to win the 2024 WNBA championship, and should have no issue getting out of the first round. Last year, the Liberty lost to the Aces in the Finals, but this year, they have more experience under their belt and have seemed a lot more connected.

Meanwhile, the Sky are in a rebuilding year, and they recently traded away their second-leading, in Marina Mabrey. That move, which helped Chicago recoup some draft capital, signaled the franchise is prioritizing the future over the present. Still, the Sky have enough elite competitors on the roster to make any series a challenging one. Angel Reese is having a stellar rookie season, while Chennedy Carter might just be the most underrated star in the league. When Carter gets hot, she’s one of the toughest scorers to stop, and she powered the Sky to a win over Aces in their last game before the midseason break. Still, simply from a depth and talent standpoint, it will be hard for Chicago to stack up against New York in a series, and to find an answer for the Stewart / Jones frontcourt.

#2 Sun vs #7 Fever

Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images

Players to watch: Alyssa Thomas (Sun), DeWanna Bonner (Sun), Brionna Jones (Sun), Caitlin Clark (Fever), Aliyah Boston (Fever), Kelsey Mitchell (Fever)
Series Prediction: The Sun handily defeat the Fever in two games.

Caitlin Clark’s WNBA career began against Connecticut, and if the postseason started today, her playoff career would, too.

This is a tough matchup for Indiana. First, there are few players in the league who can guard elite scorers like Clark as well as DiJonai Carrington can. The Fever also don’t have have a great answer for someone as tough and physical as Alyssa Thomas. The Sun are 3-0 against the Fever so far this year, with two of the wins being big blowouts, and one coming down to the wire.

This Connecticut team is a veteran group desperate to win a championship now. The Sun had three All-Stars this season — with Carrington serving as a potential fourth — when they traded for Marina Mabrey before the break. Mabrey will provide them with spacing and should serve as an offensive lift. The Fever are much-improved from their slow start, but it will be hard for a team with such a young core to battle with a defensive-minded group as experienced as the Sun.

#3 Lynx vs #6 Mercury

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Players to watch: Napheesa Collier (Lynx), Kayla McBride (Lynx), Alanna Smith (Lynx), Diana Taurasi (Mercury), Kahleah Copper (Mercury), Brittney Griner (Mercury)
Series Prediction: The Lynx win in three games.

Minnesota’s been one of the surprise teams of the 2024 season. Napheesa Collier has solidified herself as one of the best two-way players in the game and as an MVP candidate, and with her healthy, they’ve been consistently been one of the top teams in the league. The Lynx lost a step when Collier was out with a foot injury for a few games prior to the break, but she looked healthy enough during her Olympic tenure and should be ready to go. Kayla McBride has also been central to the Lynx’s success, shooting 42.7% from beyond the arc.

Meanwhile, the Mercury has largely been a .500 team this year. They will have to improve their consistency in order to become real championship contenders, and the Phoenix stars will have to stay healthy. Phoenix is 9-5 with Brittney Griner available, and any lineup with her, Kahleah Copper and Diana Taurasi is a formidable one.

Still, the Lynx have been the far more consistent team so far this season, and their stifling defense alone is reason to believe in their playoff potential.

#4 Storm vs #5 Aces

Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Players to watch: A’ja Wilson (Aces), Kelsey Plum (Aces), Jackie Young (Aces), Chelsea Gray (Aces), Skylar Diggins-Smith (Storm), Jewell Loyd (Storm), Nneka Ogwumike (Storm), Ezi Magbegor (Storm)
Series Prediction: The Aces win in three games.

A first round series between the Storm and the Aces could end up being the most competitive one in the field. As the two time defending champions, the Aces are more daunting than your average #5 seed, and after a slow start, they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games. With Chelsea Gray back in the lineup, they very well could end up being higher in the standings come playoff time.

Still, these Aces have not been nearly as dominant as last year’s team, and they’ll be tested by a talented Storm roster that includes an elite guard in Skylar Diggins-Smith, one of the top defenders in the league in Ezi Magbegor, and two great scorers in Jewell Loyd and Nneka Ogwumike. To give Seattle a real chance to defeat Las Vegas, Loyd will likely have to improve her efficiency, as the Paris Olympian is currently shooting just 36.2% from the field.

It’s hard to bet against the Aces considering they have the best player in the world in A’ja Wilson, and given that they’ve proven they can win at the highest level. But, at their best, the Seattle Storm is as star-studded a team as any, and should give the Aces a run for their money.